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Kingsoft (3888 HK) - Rosy 2019 outlook driven by online game recovery

作者: Matt MA,Leo LIU
时间: 2019年03月27日
重要性: 一般报告
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摘要: Report title:Kingsoft (3888 HK) - Rosy 2019 outlook driven by online game recovery
Analyst:Matt MA,Leo LIU
Report type:Company
Date:20190327
[Summary]

■ 4Q18/ FY18 top line and earnings beat consensus estimation
■ High rev growth and margin expansion across segments in FY19
■ Maintain BUY with TP HK$25
Gaming recovers from 2018 while Cloud /WPS track robust growth
Top line in 4Q/FY18 grew +27%/+14% YoY and reached RMB1.8bn /5.9bn, beat consensus by 12%/3%, and beat our estimation by 13%/4%. Online Games rev in 4Q18 reached RMB659mn, -12% YoY vs. -9% in 3Q18. During the earnings call, mgmt guided 30% YoY growth in 2019, inline with our previous expectation, driven by the launch of JX3M and JX2M, which are expected to release in late 2Q and 3Q. Cloud rev booked +81% YoY growth (3Q18:68%) to RMB727mn in 4Q. Currently Kingsoft Cloud is the leader in verticals such as video and game clouds, and will focus on extending into traditional industries. Mgmt guided 60%+ YoY growth in 2019,driven by rapid cloud penetration in China, as well as Kingsoft Cloud’s early mover and technology advantages. WPS rev grew +64% YoY (3Q18:29%) to RMB373mn in 4Q, due to favorable seasonality stimulated sales of enterprise WPS and online marketing in personal edition. Mgmt guided 40% YoY growth in 2019, driven by overseas expansion, localization and content monetization.
Strong rev growth offsets margin pressure from cloud in 2019
GPM was 42.9% vs. 45.2% in 3Q18 and 55.7% in 4Q17. The decrease was due to rev mix change given increasing cloud contribution. We believe GPM should increase in 2019 due to online game recovery, and then fall back in 2020/2021 due to increasing contribution from cloud, as well as declining online game GPM given gamers migration to mobile ends. GAAP NP in 4Q/FY18 -91%/-88% YoY and reached RMB229mn/ 389mn, beat consensus’ RMB-52mn/68mn, and our estimation of RMB-40mn/120mn. This was mainly due to share of profits from Cheetah Mobile’s disposed shares in ByteDance during 4Q18.
Maintain BUY; TP HK$25
We revised 19E/20E revenue by 12%/22%, and revised adj. NP by -9%/12%, mainly due to fast growth from cloud and WPS biz. We revised the FY19E valuation multiple for online gaming from 8x to 12x P/E, which was the main contributor to our TP increase. We maintain BUY with TP at HK$25, based on SOTP with FY19E multiples: (1) 12x P/E for online gaming; (2) 25x P/E for WPS; (3) 4x P/S for cloud; (4) investees; (5) net cash. Our TP of HK$25 implies 54x FY19E P/E. Kingsoft is currently trading at 42x FY19E P/E. Key risks: 1) further delay of JX3M/JX2M’s launch, 2) Cloud biz struggles to penetrate into traditional enterprises.

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